A comprehensive approach to assessing economic security as a prerequisite for building a multifactor predictive model

Abstract

The article explores the urgent problem of improving the factor assessment of the level of security of the national economy in the face of modern challenges. It is emphasized that globalization, technological progress and geopolitical instability create new threats to the economic security of countries, which requires rethinking traditional approaches to assessing and managing these risks. The article aims to investigate the factors influencing the security of the national economy and the system of indicators to evaluate its level based on a comprehensive approach, which will serve as a prerequisite for building a multifactor forecasting model. To increase the accuracy and objectivity of assessing the national economy's security level, the article analyzes existing approaches to influencing factors and identifies their limitations. The need to expand the list of factors by including new ones that reflect modern trends and risks, such as cybersecurity and energy security, is substantiated. Attention is drawn to the importance of using integral indicators that allow for a comprehensive assessment of the country's economic security level and identify the most vulnerable areas. A comprehensive approach to assessing the level of security of the national economy is proposed, which combines qualitative and quantitative assessment methods and takes into account the relationship between different groups of factors and their dynamics. The use of a risk map to assess the probability of realization and the potential impact of various risks on economic security is considered. The main factors affecting Ukraine's financial security are identified, and their relationships are analyzed. The study's practical significance lies in the fact that the proposed approach can be used to build a multifactor predictive model of the country's security. The study results can be helpful for government authorities, analytical centres, scientists, and experts dealing with economic security issues.