The evolution of price policy within the marketing mix in the context of inflationary trends: a statistical analysis of the ATB RETAIL company in Ukraine

Abstract

In recent years, persistent inflationary pressure has emerged as one of the most significant macroeconomic factors influencing the development of Ukraine’s retail sector. Within this context, the pricing component of the marketing mix acquires strategic importance, as it simultaneously reflects a company’s adaptive response to macroeconomic instability and determines its long-term competitive positioning. This study aims to explore the transformation of pricing strategies under the influence of inflationary dynamics, using the case of ATB-MARKET, Ukraine’s largest national discount retail chain.

The research examines the period from 2021 through the first quarter of 2025, applying quantitative statistical methods to an empirical dataset comprising the average annual prices of 100 representative goods. These items are grouped into four categories: (1) food and non-alcoholic beverages; (2) alcoholic beverages and tobacco; (3) clothing and footwear; and (4) household goods, home appliances, and ongoing housing maintenance. Comparative analysis was conducted between ATB-MARKET internal price indices and the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the National Bank of Ukraine, enabling the identification of correlation patterns and statistical dependencies.

The findings reveal a moderate but statistically significant positive correlation (r ≈ 0.6) between ATB-MARKET price changes and national inflation rates, suggesting that the company’s pricing policy largely aligns with broader macroeconomic trends. However, deviations were observed in 2024, when the chain’s price growth temporarily outpaced the national average - an indication of possible strategic price adjustments aimed at profit maximization in response to shifting demand and supply constraints. Sector-specific analysis further shows that product categories differed in their sensitivity to inflation, with essential goods demonstrating greater stability compared to discretionary items.

Overall, the results underscore the necessity for integrated pricing strategies that account for inflationary volatility while maintaining competitiveness. The study recommends further investigation into the interplay between pricing decisions and other elements of the marketing mix, with the aim of enhancing the resilience of retail networks to future macroeconomic shocks.