Methodological Framework for Assessing Material Loses in Ukraine’s Manufacturing Industry During Wartime

Abstract

The ongoing war in Ukraine has caused unprecedented damage to the country’s manufacturing sector, revealing the need for reliable tools to quantify and analyze material losses for effective recovery planning.

Purpose. The article aims to substantiate the necessity of a special methodological approach to assessing material losses in Ukraine’s manufacturing industry during wartime and to develop a comprehensive four-stage model that considers spatial, economic, potential, and environmental impacts of destruction.

Methods. The study applies a combination of systemic, comparative-analytical, and logical-structural methods to generalize international loss assessment frameworks (RDNA, PDNA, DaLA, UNIDO, HAZUS, OECD), and to develop a “decision tree” guiding the selection of optimal methodologies for Ukraine’s context. The method of territorial differentiation is used to account for regional disparities in the consequences of military actions. Economic-stractural analysis enables the evaluation of changes in value-added losses, while the expert-analytical approach supports the identification of potential and environmental losses.

Results. The study reveals that conventional international methodologies for assessing losses are primarily designed for natural disasters and do not adequately reflect the specifics of prolonged military conflicts accompanied by large-scale infrastructure destruction, market disruptions, and the degradation of supply chains. The proposed “decision tree” illustrates the logic of selecting appropriate methods depending on the type of losses, data availability, and the need for combined evaluations. Based on this framework, a four-stage approach to assessing losses in Ukraine’s manufacturing industry has been developed, integrating spatial analysis, valuation of destroyed capacities, assessment of potential consequences for production chains, and consideration of environmental impacts.

Conclusions. The developed approach provides a holistic view of the losses in Ukraine’s manufacturing industry, prevents data duplication, and reflects the cumulative economic impact of the war/ it forms a methodological foundation for developing national recovery strategies and integrating Ukraine’s loss assessment into international post-conflict evaluation systems.