Foreign economic activity risks: analytical and statistical assessment methods

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of contemporary risks in foreign economic activity in the context of global turbulence, increasing currency market volatility, geopolitical transformations, and the restructuring of international logistics systems. The study applies methods of system analysis, risk structuring, critical review of academic publications, statistical assessment, and comparative analysis of international risk-management approaches, including the guidelines of the Basel Committee, ISO standards, and analytical frameworks developed by leading global institutions. Special attention is devoted to the impact of macroeconomic, financial, logistical, and legal risks on the functioning of Ukrainian enterprises engaged in foreign economic operations.

The results demonstrate that the structure of risks in international business has become increasingly interdependent and dynamic: currency fluctuations amplify price and contractual risks; logistical constraints reinforce operational and production-related risks; and evolving regulatory requirements of foreign markets complicate strategic planning. The study identifies key trends such as the rising significance of geopolitical risks, the expansion of cyber risks in international settlements, the growing adoption of hedging instruments, and the spread of digital risk-monitoring technologies. It is established that the effectiveness of enterprises operating in global markets critically depends on their ability to integrate analytical, statistical, and technological methods of risk assessment into a unified risk-management system.

The conclusions summarize strategic recommendations for enhancing the risk-management practices of Ukrainian enterprises, including the adaptation of international risk assessment methodologies to national conditions, the development of internal monitoring and control mechanisms, the implementation of hedging tools, the optimization of supply chains, and the alignment with international risk-management standards. The study substantiates that the formation of a comprehensive system for assessing and managing risks is a key factor in strengthening the competitiveness of enterprises in global markets and ensuring their resilience to external shocks.

Scientific novelty lies in substantiating an integrated theoretical and methodological approach to assessing foreign economic activity risks, which combines analytical and statistical methods into a unified risk-management framework tailored to the operating conditions of Ukrainian enterprises.