Risk assessment of enterprises in Ukraine under war conditions: focus on the IT sector

Abstract

Full-scale military aggression against Ukraine has led to significant changes in the functioning of the national economy, the transformation of the business environment and a sharp increase in the level of uncertainty for enterprises of all forms of ownership and industry affiliation. In these conditions, risks have ceased to be exclusively a financial category and have acquired a systemic nature, encompassing operational, personnel, reputational, institutional and military threats. The problem of risk management in sectors with a high share of exports and based on human capital, in particular in the IT sector of Ukraine, is becoming particularly relevant. Therefore, risk management is becoming key, since not only their financial stability, but also their survival in the long term depends on the ability of enterprises to identify, assess and minimize risks. The need to combine qualitative and quantitative approaches to risk assessment, which allows for a more complete reflection of the complexity of modern threats, is becoming particularly relevant.

The article systematizes the main types of risks characteristic of the war period, identifies their key sources and consequences for economic activity. An integrated risk assessment model is proposed, based on a combination of expert assessments, matrix methods and calculation of the integral risk indicator. The main emphasis is placed on the identification and assessment of risk factors that are generated (or significantly increased) under the conditions of military aggression against Ukraine. The results obtained can be used to increase the resilience of Ukrainian enterprises and improve the risk management system in conditions of prolonged instability.