The Global Grain Market: Trends, Structural Changes, and Innovative Drivers of Competitiveness

Abstract

The article analyzes changes in the structure and dynamics of the global grain market resulting from geopolitical instability and the rapid development of digital technologies. It is substantiated that the current stage of market development is characterized by a transition to a "new price reality" model, defined by high volatility and the formation of stable premiums for logistics and security risks. Based on a retrospective analysis of USDA and FAO statistical data for 2015-2025, a steady trend toward increased global production alongside relatively stable harvested areas was identified, confirming the dominant role of intensive development factors.

Particular attention is paid to the quantitative assessment of the global supply oligopolization level through the calculation of the CR5 concentration index. It was established that for the corn market, this indicator reaches 75.2 %, indicating a critical dependence of global food security on the stability of a limited circle of exporting countries. The effect of the "logistics multiplier" was identified, where the destabilization of key transport hubs leads to a decoupling of price dynamics from the physical balance of grain.

The scientific novelty of the study lies in the substantiation of the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and precision farming in stabilizing market conditions. It is proven that the use of prognostic modeling methods allows for minimizing information asymmetry and reducing the amplitude of speculative fluctuations on futures markets. Forecast scenarios for market development until 2034 are formulated, predicting a shift in the center of global demand toward the Global South (54 % of demand growth will occur in Asia and Africa) and an increasing role of the bioenergy segment. The results of the study are of practical importance for the formation of Ukraine's adaptive trade policy in the face of global shocks.