Assessment of external pressure intensity on the innovation potential of food industry enterprises under uncertainty

Abstract

Aim. The study aims to develop and substantiate a methodological approach to the quantitative assessment of the intensity of external pressure on the innovation potential of food industry enterprises under conditions of critical uncertainty in the period 2022–2024. Methods. The article applies a combined methodological toolkit that integrates the expert evaluation method, the Harrington scale for transforming qualitative characteristics of the external environment into coefficients, and the consideration of the adaptability (resilience) coefficient of enterprises as a corrective factor. Results. Eight key groups of external risks are identified (energy, logistics, raw material and resource, financial and credit, labor, currency and inflationary, regulatory and institutional, and military-security), for each of which the strength of impact, probability of occurrence, and weighting coefficients are determined based on expert data.

An integral index of gross external pressure (Iext = 0.4698) is calculated, corresponding to a moderately high level of destabilization. After adjustment for the adaptability coefficient of enterprises (Kabs = 0.6), the net destructive pressure is obtained (Inet = 0.188), which falls within the critical zone of the Harrington scale (0.00–0.20).

The results indicate a significant limitation of opportunities to realize innovation potential under conditions of full-scale war: innovation activity becomes predominantly adaptive, aimed at maintaining operational resilience, while the implementation of strategic and radical innovations is possible only with external support. Conclusions. The proposed approach enables the derivation of substantiated correction coefficients for models assessing enterprise innovation development, improves the accuracy of strategic planning, and supports managerial decision-making under conditions of high uncertainty. The obtained results can be applied in the system of strategic management of food industry enterprises to minimize the destabilizing impact of the external environment and enhance resilience.