Structural and Decomposition Analysis of the Final Use Components of GDP in Ukraine under Wartime Conditions

Abstract

The full-scale war has caused profound structural shifts in Ukraine’s economy, requiring a reassessment of the role of GDP final use components in shaping macroeconomic dynamics. The purpose of the article is to conduct a structural and decomposition analysis of the final use components of GDP in Ukraine and to quantify their contribution to GDP changes in 2021–2024. The methodological framework of the study includes statistical, comparative, structural and dynamic analysis, as well as a structural decomposition approach that allows evaluating the contribution of individual components to GDP changes. The empirical base consists of official macroeconomic data. The results show that in 2022 the decline in GDP was driven by a reduction in gross capital formation and a deterioration in the external trade balance, while final consumption played a stabilizing role. In 2023–2024, economic recovery was mainly supported by rising consumption and renewed investment activity. Significant structural shifts were identified, including the growing role of the government sector in demand formation, the transformation of investments toward reconstruction, and the persistence of a negative external trade balance. The decomposition analysis demonstrates that consumption is the main driver of recovery, whereas the external sector remains a destabilizing factor. The practical significance of the results lies in their applicability for substantiating macroeconomic policy measures aimed at stimulating investment, promoting exports and reducing import dependence. The findings indicate the formation of a wartime economic model characterized by the dominance of consumption, an increased role of the state, and dependence on external resources. Sustainable economic growth requires strengthening investment activity, export development, and enhancing the role of the private sector.