Mechanisms for population re-emigration to preserve human potential of Ukraine

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to substantiate the strategic priorities and mechanisms of population re-emigration to preserve the human potential of Ukraine. The following methods are used in the article: statistical analysis – to study the trends of forced migration and re-emigration of the population of Ukraine; general scientific methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction – to study the experience of regulating re-emigration in Ukraine; methods of systematization, generalization – to identify the goals and mechanisms of regulating re-emigration; graphical methods – to visualize the results of the study.

The results of the study showed that the situation regarding the scale of forced migration since February 2022 has gradually stabilized. However a negative trend of a threefold increase in the number of people who crossed the state border of Ukraine and did not return has been observed in 2023-2024. An analysis of the countries of largest stay of refugees from the war in Ukraine showed that in relation to the population, the largest recipients were Moldova, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia and Poland. An analysis of the regional specificity of re-emigration in Ukraine showed that the highest share of re-emigrants was found for Kharkiv, Kyiv, Kherson regions and the Kyiv city as deoccupied territories, as well as Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Zaporizhia regions, although a difficult security situation remains for them. This indicates the unregulated nature of re-emigration, the forced return to the regions despite difficult socio-economic and security conditions. Therefore, it is relevant to develop a strategy for regulating the re-emigration of the population of Ukraine based on the concept of «soft power». The goals of regulating re-emigration should be to preserve human potential and stimulate demography, capitalize on the human potential of re-emigrants, strengthen social cohesion and the state's responsibility to citizens. Strategizing the regulation of re-emigration should be carried out for scenarios (1) continuation of a full-scale war, in which the Ukrainian diaspora is likely to grow and may exceed the population of Ukraine; (2) «freezing»the war, in which partial re-emigration and stabilization of the formation of a new diaspora are possible; (3) the scenario of the end of the war, in which either mass re-emigration of refugees from the war, other categories of migrants, or increased emigration due to family reunification and the search for better living conditions is possible. It is necessary to develop mechanisms for re-emigration regardless of the scenario, that could be applied in case of expediency and prompt response:

Conclusions. It is urgent to start public discussions on the problems, needs and scale of re-emigration for the cohesion and stability of Ukrainian society. This is a complex issue that can cause a certain split in society between those who remained in Ukraine and were forced to leave. This can be a subject for external manipulation. To prevent this, a new strategy for regulating re-emigration should be developed in Ukraine. In the context of preserving human potential, stimulating re-emigration for Ukraine is a condition for strengthening national security.