Resilience of small and medium-sized businesses as a driver of national economic recovery in conditions of uncertainty

Abstract

The article examines the resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Ukraine as a key factor in the recovery and development of the national economy under conditions of uncertainty and external challenges caused by military actions, economic instability, and global crises.

Methods. The methodological framework includes comparative and trend analysis of the dynamics of the number of SMEs, the volume of goods and services sold, and the profitability of operating activities; polynomial modelling to identify long-term patterns and build forecast trajectories of quantitative and qualitative SME indicators; as well as structural-logical and systemic approaches for assessing development trends and synthesizing results when forming a roadmap for strengthening resilience.

Results. Based on the combination of dynamic and performance indicators of SME activity, the study proves the presence of resilience asymmetry between the categories of small and medium enterprises. This asymmetry is manifested in higher adaptability and more dynamic responses of small businesses to external shocks compared to medium-sized enterprises. It is shown that both categories experienced a decline in the number of enterprises during socio-economic crises (2014–2016 and 2022), yet demonstrated different speeds and trajectories of recovery.

It has been established that the key determinants of resilience include technological readiness, the level of digitalization, and the innovation activities of SMEs. On this basis, the practical toolkit for resilience management has been enhanced by developing a roadmap for strengthening SME resilience, which outlines a set of strategic vectors aimed at overcoming institutional barriers, enhancing enterprise stability, stimulating innovation, and accelerating digital transformation.

Conclusions. The study demonstrates that enhancing business resilience is a strategic prerequisite for economic stability and a fundamental condition for Ukraine’s economic recovery, rather than merely an adaptive feature in conditions of instability and multidimensional crises. This approach enabled the development of practical measures to strengthen SME resilience.