Digital transformation of logistics systems in international trade under economic instability

Анотація

Purpose. This study aims to evaluate the effect of digital transformation on performance and resilience of logistics system in international trade during economic instability. The objective of the research is to reveal the contribution of digital technologies to enhancing the efficiency of logistics; to enhance the adaptability of the logistics value chain; and to mitigate the adverse impacts of economic uncertainties on the activities of international trade. Special focus is on the comparative analysis of countries with different digital development and logistics performance.

Methods. This study is quantitative with the method used is econometric modeling and comparative analysis. Secondary statistical data was utilized to create a panel dataset for the years 2020-2024 for Ukraine, Poland, Romania, and Germany. The Logistics Performance Index was the dependent variable, whereas the explanatory variables were Digital Adoption Index, ICT development indicators, exchange rate volatility, trade openness, foreign direct investment, GDP per capita and quality of infrastructure. To assess the relationship between digitalization, economic instability and logistics performance, Fixed Effects and Dynamic Panel GMM models were used. A comparative analysis of the data was also conducted to detect country-specific patterns and trends.

Results. The results show that digital transformation plays a key role in the development of logistics systems in international trade. Digital Adoption Index was the strongest positive driver of logistics performance, reinforcing the significance of digital technologies for supply chain efficiency and flexibility. It was also concluded that the ICT development had a positive effect on logistics outcomes. The impacts of economic instability were manifested in high level of volatility in exchange rates which in turn affected logistics services. Concurrently, the relationship between digitalization and economic instability uncovered that digital technologies contribute to lessening the vulnerability of logistics systems to external shocks. Germany has recorded the highest level of logistics efficiency and digital resilience since the beginning of the study period, and Poland showed a stable development trend in the process of logistics modernization. Romania made moderate gains that were more consistent. Ukraine had the biggest problems during the unstable period but the biggest growth in indicators of digital resilience which demonstrates the strategic nature of digital transformation in ensuring continuity of logistics operations in difficult conditions.

Conclusions. The study validates digital transformation as one of the most important factors to consider when assessing logistics system performance and resilience in international trade. Investment in digital infrastructure, intelligent solutions in logistics and information technologies is not only helping to optimize the processes but also enabling logistics systems to be more resilient and reactive in the face of economic shocks and adapt to shifting market conditions. The results obtained highlight the importance of introducing digital technologies into the national strategies for logistics development in order to improve competitiveness, sustainability and economic resilience in the long run. Further studies need to be conducted on a wider geographical scale and explore the effects of specific digital technologies on logistics performance and trade sustainability.