Assessment of the Macroeconomic Environment Risks Impact on the Security and Resilience of Ukraine’s Economic Development

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the impact of macroeconomic environment risks on the security and resilience of Ukraine’s economic development under conditions of prolonged war and global instability, as well as to identify the key determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in the medium term.

The methodological framework is based on systemic and structural-dynamic approaches. The study employs methods of statistical analysis, comparison, generalization, indicative assessment of imbalances, and correlation-regression analysis to determine the strength and direction of relationships between macroeconomic indicators. Scenario modeling for 2026–2027 is also applied to evaluate possible trajectories of economic dynamics.

The findings indicate that Ukraine’s macroeconomic system operates under the influence of interconnected demographic, investment, fiscal-debt, and foreign trade risks. A significant relationship between real economic growth and investment activity, foreign trade performance, and labor market conditions has been confirmed. An inverse relationship between inflation dynamics and investment processes has been identified. It is substantiated that fiscal stimulus produces a short-term supportive effect; however, it simultaneously increases debt burden and long-term risks to financial stability. Three medium-term development scenarios have been elaborated, taking into account military, institutional, and external constraints. The baseline scenario assumes a moderate recovery trajectory provided that external financial support is maintained and domestic resources are effectively mobilized.

It is demonstrated that the resilience of economic development depends on the capacity to ensure investment recovery, expand export potential, and stabilize the labor market while maintaining control over inflationary and debt-related risks. The study substantiates the necessity of forming a risk-oriented architecture of economic policy aimed at strengthening macroeconomic adaptability, reducing structural imbalances, and enhancing recovery capacity under prolonged shocks.