Methods of researching tourist flows under martial law: modern practices and statistical tools

Анотація

Purpose. This study aims to identify and formalize contemporary research techniques and statistical applications that can be applied at the age of analyzing tourist flows under the conditions of martial law with reference to Ukraine as an example. These factors are urgency of the problem due to the significant disruption of tourism infrastructure, the absence of regular publishing of official statistics, and the overlapping of tourism with forced migration and internal displacement in case of military conflict. Traditional approaches to tourism analysis were based on the assumption of stability and accessibility and do not fit the demands of researchers and policymakers in high risk situations. The study will provide an adaptive tourist activity measuring scheme based on other standards and spatial analysis.

Methods. Methodological foundation of the research is a combination of comparative content analysis of the literature on tourism, secondary analysis of data in the period 2020 - 2024, and use of geospatial and proxy-based tools. The study combines time series, spatial distribution based on GIS and mobility measures specific to crisis. The article provides data that display the movements of inbound and outbound tourists, domestic tour that represents the national distribution of tourism activities, region-based activity reception, and enterprise revenues.

Results. The findings of this research show that there was a severe drop in international and domestic tourism in 2022, and a gradual increase is found in 2023 and 2024. Distinguishing forced displacement and tourist travel was critical in making proper statistics analysis. Another benefit corroborated by the study is the usefulness of non-typical data measurements including transport infrastructure operability, lodging figures in secure area, and behavioral detail division focusing on mobility designs. The results provide evidence that there are regional differences in the resilience of tourism and indicate the potential of western Ukrainian regions to serve as short term tourism centers. The correlation of domestic tourism with the increase in revenue of the sector, even during wartime conditions, is proved by statistical analysis.

Conclusions. The implications note the need to remain methodologically flexible and interdisciplinary in studies devoted to crisis-sensitive tourism. This framework contributes to a more accurate monitoring of tourist flows, encourages data-driven planning in recovering, and can be an example to other countries affected by this crisis. Not only does the study add to the scientific area of study tourism geography, but also lends itself to the practical area of post-crisis planning of economic recovery.