Directions for optimizing China–Ukraine economic cooperation

Abstract

The article explores the current state and strategic prospects for optimizing economic cooperation between China and Ukraine amid postwar reconstruction and macroeconomic shifts. The authors analyze the dynamics of bilateral trade in goods over the baseline (2016–2020) and shock (2021–2023) periods, evaluating the impact of military actions on Ukraine’s export capacity and logistics. Key sectors of industrial complementarity are systematically identified, including agriculture, energy, transport infrastructure, and municipal utilities. Utilizing the RDNA4 framework, the structural damage and financial needs for recovery are assessed. A comprehensive three-phase rolling roadmap is proposed to optimize economic interaction, focusing on macro-risk mitigation, private capital mobilization, and alignment with EU standards and green regulations.