Digitalization of Business Processes of Ukrainian Enterprises: an Adapted Model of Technology Diffusion

Abstract

Purpose. Digital transformation has become a critical factor of competitiveness, yet Ukrainian enterprises navigate this process amid structural imbalances, wartime disruptions, and insufficient institutional support. This study aims to develop and validate an adapted analytical model of digital technology diffusion within the Ukrainian business environment, designed to function both as a descriptive framework and a practical forecasting and strategic planning tool for enterprises of various types and scales.

Methods. The study employs a mixed methodology combining quantitative and qualitative approaches. The empirical base comprises in-depth interviews with executives of 42 enterprises, a standardized survey of 280 specialists, and analysis of industry reports for 2022–2024. The theoretical foundation is E. Rogers' classical diffusion of innovations theory, modified by the authors to reflect the specifics of business digital transformation. Regression and factor analysis, along with a multidimensional ranking methodology, were applied to construct the digital maturity matrix.

Results. Five adapted enterprise categories by digitalization level were identified – from «Digital Pioneers» (2.5%) to «Digital Outsiders» (15–20%). A modified S-shaped technology diffusion curve was constructed, and a threshold penetration value (16–18%) was identified, after which exponential growth occurs. Mathematical modelling confirmed that business scalability (β₁ = 0.41) and investment capital (β₃ = 0.37) are critical determinants of digitalization speed (adj. R² = 0.78). A five-dimensional digital maturity matrix was validated with an inter-expert consistency coefficient of 0.87 (Kendall). Five dominant digitalization trends were identified: transition to platform ecosystems, SaaS growth, cybersecurity prioritization, AI/ML adoption, and omnichannel development.

Conclusions. «Comprehensive Transformers» – enterprises that develop all five digital maturity dimensions in a balanced manner – demonstrate the highest economic efficiency. Without cultural transformation, even the most advanced technological solutions lose up to 43% of their potential effectiveness. The developed methodological toolkit significantly improves digitalization forecasting accuracy and provides a practical foundation for strategic planning at both enterprise and industry cluster levels.