Assessing the impact of the migration crisis on Ukraine’s economic security under wartime challenges

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to develop a methodological approach to assessing the impact of the migration crisis on Ukraine’s economic security under wartime challenges through the development of a compact tool for the rapid diagnosis of migration-associated risks. The methodological framework of the study is based on general scientific and special methods of economic analysis, including the systemic approach, indicator-based assessment, the integral approach, comparative analysis, generalization, and economic modeling. To construct the analytical framework, the min-max normalization principle was applied, enabling the transformation of heterogeneous socio-economic indicators into a unified dimensionless scale and ensuring the possibility of their aggregation into an integral indicator. The study substantiates the expediency of considering the migration crisis not only as a humanitarian or demographic phenomenon, but also as one of the significant factors destabilizing the state’s economic security. The main channels of the negative impact of migration processes on the economic system have been identified, including the loss of human capital, labour shortages, contraction of the tax base, increased budgetary burden, and weakening of post-war recovery potential. A proprietary methodological approach in the form of the Express Migration Economic Security Index (EMEBS) is proposed, based on the aggregation of six key indicators reflecting the demographic, labour, fiscal, and socio-economic dimensions of economic security. An algorithm for index construction has been developed, including indicator selection, classification into stimulators and destimulators, normalization, aggregation, and interpretation of results using a four-level assessment scale. The proposed approach makes it possible to promptly identify critical trends and form an analytical basis for managerial decision-making in the field of economic security. It has been proven that the migration crisis under the conditions of full-scale war generates complex long-term risks to Ukraine’s economic security, affecting demographic, labour, financial, and social subsystems.