Spatio-temporal analysis of the recovery of the tourism sector in the regions of Ukraine: clustering, differentiation and convergence of indicators

Abstract

The article examines the spatial and temporal characteristics of the recovery of the tourist sector in the regions of Ukraine in the context of wartime and post-crisis transformations. The relevance of the study is determined by the increasing interregional disparities in the development of the tourism industry due to military actions, infrastructure destruction, migration processes, business relocation, and the transformation of tourist flows. The tourist sector is one of the most sensitive areas of the economy to crisis processes, so assessing the trajectories of its recovery is of significant importance for the formation of effective state and regional post-war development policies. The aim of the study is to analyse the spatial-temporal characteristics of the development of the tourism sector in the regions of Ukraine using methods of clustering, convergence and differentiation of regional development indicators. The work employs a comprehensive spatial-temporal approach, combining cluster analysis methods, k-means clustering, assessment of variation coefficients and σ-convergence.The analysis used indicators of tourist flow, accommodation occupancy, safety attractiveness, level of infrastructure recovery, and business activity in the tourism sector. As a result of the study, four clusters of regions were identified: high tourism resilience, adaptive recovery, moderate recovery and crisis vulnerability. It has been established that the western regions of Ukraine show the highest rates of recovery in tourist activity, while the front-line areas are characterised by significant stagnation in the tourism sector and a high level of infrastructure losses. The conducted analysis documented the strengthening of divergent trends in the development of the tourism industry in 2022–2025 and confirmed the high level of spatial differentiation of Ukraine's tourism sector. The research conducted confirmed the feasibility of using a spatio-temporal approach as a tool to assess the effectiveness of post-crisis recovery of the tourism sector and to forecast regional development prospects under contemporary crisis challenges. The results obtained can be used to shape a differentiated state policy for the post-war recovery of the tourism sector and to justify regional development strategies.