Diagnostics of the effectiveness of development strategies of renewable energy enterprises in Ukraine

Abstract

The article substantiates and develops a holistic, adaptive, and multi-criteria theoretical and methodological framework for diagnosing the effectiveness of development strategies in Ukrainian renewable energy enterprises (REEs) under conditions of martial law and post-war recovery. Unlike conventional diagnostics focused on current operational performance, the proposed mechanism centers on assessing the long-term strategic viability and resilience of the corporate business model in an extremely turbulent environment. The framework integrates three core components: (1) a modified VRIO analysis to identify the strategic status and competitive potential of corporate resources, with particular emphasis on unique, non-imitable assets such as grid connection capacities and AI-based forecasting systems; (2) an adapted three-factor DuPont decomposition model reoriented toward strategic financial diagnostics, enabling the detection of critical disruptions in pricing strategy, investment decisions, and capital structure under conditions of high financial leverage and systemic payment delays; and (3) a targeted set of operational business diagnostics indicators that evaluate the strategic flexibility of marketing communications, knowledge management systems, and liquidity buffers within a liberalized electricity market subject to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The study formalizes a comprehensive structural-logical evaluation process comprising four sequential stages, culminating in a strategic contour-by-contour audit of the corporate governance architecture for compliance with five adaptive management contours: strategic, risk-oriented, operational-dispatching, digital-analytical, and commercial. This approach provides energy company executives with a practical tool for timely identification of strategic misalignments and for enhancing organizational resilience amid physical asset destruction risks, dispatch constraints, and regulatory volatility, thereby contributing to Ukraine’s broader energy security objectives.