Fiscal potential of taxable imports of vehicles in Ukraine: Structural shifts and risks of customs administration

Abstract

Purpose. The article aims to substantiate the fiscal potential of taxable imports of vehicles in Ukraine through the analysis of structural dynamics, the role of vehicle imports in forming the customs taxation base, and the main risks of customs administration. The relevance of the study is determined by the fact that vehicles form a significant and sensitive segment of foreign trade: they generate a considerable value base for customs taxation and at the same time require careful verification of customs value, commodity classification, technical characteristics and documentary evidence. Methods. The methodological basis of the research includes structural and dynamic analysis, comparison, grouping, statistical generalization and analytical interpretation of official customs data. The empirical basis consists of open datasets of the State Customs Service of Ukraine on taxable imports and statistical imports under the Ukrainian Classification of Goods for Foreign Economic Activity codes. Results. The study shows that taxable imports of vehicles developed unevenly during the analyzed period: growth in 2021 was followed by a sharp decline in 2022, significant recovery in 2023, relative stabilization in 2024 and further growth in 2025. Passenger cars remained the dominant group and accounted for almost three quarters of the taxable import value of the analyzed vehicle groups in 2025. The comparison of taxable and statistical imports demonstrates that the taxable component is a more accurate basis for assessing customs fiscal capacity than general foreign trade indicators alone. Conclusions. The fiscal potential of vehicle imports should be understood not only as the value of imported goods, but also as the ability of customs administration to ensure correct valuation, proper classification, reliable documentation and predictable risk-based control. The article systematizes documentary, valuation, classification, technical and procedural risks that influence the realization of this potential and substantiates the need to connect statistical analysis with practical customs administration tools.