Sustainable Development Assessment of Commodity Markets in Selecting Performance Vectors for Ukraine's Post-War Recovery

Abstract

Purpose. To develop a comprehensive methodology for assessing the sustainable development of commodity markets as a science-based foundation for selecting priority performance vectors for Ukraine's post-war economic recovery, integrating economic, social, environmental, and investment dimensions linked to the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the European Green Deal principles. Methods. Systematisation and comparative analysis of theoretical approaches to sustainable development and post-war recovery; a matrix method for constructing a four-component indicator system; the Delphi method and scenario modelling for identifying priority vectors; SWOT analysis; participatory methods involving stakeholders. The methodological foundation integrates the concept of the circular economy, UN SDG principles (particularly SDGs 6, 7, 8, 12, 15), and the European Green Deal. Results. Five principles of vector selection were formulated — priority of circular models, stakeholder integration, alignment with UN SDGs, sectoral differentiation, balance of global and local; a comprehensive system of 17 indicators across four sustainable development components was developed (economic — 6, social — 6, environmental — 8, investment — 3); an assessment matrix was built for six sectors (agricultural, processing, extractive, energy, trade, transport); five priority «green» vectors were identified — agricultural, energy, processing-biotechnological, transport-logistics, and digital; a four-stage implementation roadmap for 2025–2030 was proposed. Conclusions. The scientific novelty lies in conceptualising performance vectors of post-war recovery through the lens of sustainable commodity market development and in the authors' indicator system integrating four components linked to specific UN SDG targets. The practical significance addresses state regulators (the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Agrarian Policy, Ministry of Environmental Protection), business support institutions (EBA, ULIE, Diia.Business), and international donors (Ukraine Facility, EBRD, IFC, USAID).