Methodical approaches to risk assessment in the residential real estate market in times of war

Abstract

The residential real estate market is one of the key elements of the country's economy, which depends on the effectiveness of the development of all its sectors. In modern conditions, the housing market faces many challenges, mainly the beginning of a full-scale invasion. Constant risk factors that are difficult to predict create unfavorable conditions for the development of this industry. In addition, the destroyed infrastructure, disruption of logistical connections, and the rapid increase in raw materials prices further worsen the situation. The war conditions have significantly affected the housing market, leading to a decrease in residential real estate production volume. Therefore, there is a need to find new opportunities and approaches for the further development of the residential real estate market, considering all these circumstances in the current conditions. Constant analysis and adaptation to changes in wartime conditions are key factors for restoring this industry and ensuring its sustainability in the future. The residential real estate market is a complex concept, as it interacts with various spheres of society, such as the economy, culture and society, innovation, etc. However, in wartime conditions, the housing market of Ukraine faces several risks that create difficult operating conditions and a decrease in performance indicators. Such conditions require market participants to respond quickly and, at the same time, force investors to be more careful and deliberate in their decisions.

Purpose. The article is devoted to analyzing the formation and evolution of the residential real estate market in Ukraine in the general context and in modern realities, which includes the study of its main characteristics and properties.

Research methods include chronological methods to determine the process of transformation of financial services, statistical methods to determine the pace of dynamics of the volume of manufactured construction products, study the dynamics of construction products production, and analysis of the structure of the real estate market in Ukraine.

Results. The stages of market development are considered, which cover periods of growth and decline, as well as the factors that determine these dynamics. An analysis of the risks associated with the residential real estate market is made, and the main stages of assessing risks in the housing market are established. The main methods of assessing risks in the housing market are studied, and the advantages and disadvantages of each method are highlighted. The risks that arise in wartime and require immediate response are analyzed. An analysis of the dynamics of construction product production volumes from 2020 to 2023 was conducted, as well as an analysis of the structure of the real estate market in 2022. Based on the study results, forecasts were developed for the housing market, considering the identified trends and risks. Recommendations were made to prevent possible risks in war conditions and ensure the further stability and success of the residential real estate market.

Conclusions. The effective use of risk assessment methods gains special attention in war conditions, as it allows you to predict possible scenarios and manage risks in conditions of uncertainty, reduce their negative impact to maintain stability and ensure efficient resource use. A comprehensive risk assessment method is the most effective under these conditions since its use allows you to consider various aspects of the impact of war on the market. This allows for a deeper and more accurate analysis of potential threats and to find a way out in time. During wartime, mixed housing formats in the real estate market are a practical solution due to their flexibility, adaptability, and ability to take into account the various needs of the population. They allow you to optimize the use of resources and generally stimulate the development of this industry and the country's economy as a whole in conditions of uncertainty and instability.