The Impact of War on the Volumes and Structure of Ukraine's Freight Transportation Market

Abstract

This article aims to analyze the dynamics of overall freight transportation volumes, structural shifts across various modes of transport, changes in freight turnover, and the specific characteristics of international freight transport concerning export-import operations under the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

The research employs a comprehensive set of scientific methods, including: statistical analysis for processing and analyzing official statistical data on freight transportation volumes, freight turnover, and international trade for the studied period; comparative analysis of pre-war and wartime indicators to identify trends and structural changes influenced by the hostilities; factor analysis to determine the primary factors driving changes in the volumes and structure of the freight transportation market; and the graphical method for clear visualization of the dynamics and structural transformations within the freight transportation market indicators.

The findings of this study demonstrate a significant negative impact of the full-scale war on Ukraine's freight transportation market. A sharp decline in overall transportation volumes and freight turnover was observed in 2022-2023. Substantial structural changes in the distribution of freight flows across different modes of transport were analyzed, notably a significant reduction in the role of maritime and air transport, and an increase in the importance of road and rail transport, particularly during the initial stage of the war. Changes in the geography of international freight transport, a reorientation towards western borders, and alterations in the volumes of export-import operations were also investigated. A partial recovery in transportation volumes was recorded in 2023-2024; however, the market structure remains significantly different from the pre-war period.

The authors conclude that the war has been a defining factor that has fundamentally transformed Ukraine's freight transportation market, leading to alterations in logistics chains, a significant reduction in transportation volumes, and profound structural changes. Despite a partial recovery, the market continues to operate under conditions of high uncertainty and is contingent on the further development of hostilities and the restoration of economic activity.