Risk monitoring in the strategic management system of agribusiness: impact indicators and optimization directions

Abstract

The current economic conditions in Ukraine’s agricultural sector are marked by growing uncertainty caused by military actions, climate change, price volatility, resource shortages, and the transformation of foreign economic relations. In this environment, agricultural enterprises face the urgent need to develop an effective risk monitoring system capable of ensuring strategic resilience, adaptability, and competitiveness. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the methodological foundations for strategic risk monitoring in agribusiness through risk classification, identification of key assessment indicators, and definition of core implementation procedures at the enterprise level. The research applies methods of content analysis of scientific sources, expert generalization, logical grouping, the construction of a typological risk model, and qualitative analysis of possible consequences.

The study generalizes modern scientific approaches to risk classification and proposes an original grouping based on the criterion of strategic relevance, encompassing risks of the strategic environment, resource provision, climate and environmental risks, operational destabilization, and financial instability. For each group, practical key risk indicators (KRIs) are developed, potential impacts are identified, and the implementation of basic monitoring procedures is substantiated (risk registers, dashboards, regular indicator analysis). The proposed system enables enterprises to identify the most critical zones of influence and adapt strategic decisions to their specific risk profile. The suggested approach to strategic risk monitoring can become an effective tool for enhancing the adaptability of agribusiness to external challenges. Its practical value lies in the possibility of applying the proposed indicators and procedures at the enterprise level to prevent losses, improve managerial decision-making, and ensure financial sustainability. In the context of sustainable development, the system allows not only for reactive responses to threats but also for the integration of responsible management elements - ecological, innovative, and social.