Forecasting the Rental Real Estate Market of Kyiv: A Risk-Oriented Approach

Abstract

The article presents a comprehensive risk-oriented methodological approach to forecasting the development of the rental real estate market of Kyiv. The relevance of the study is driven by the need to establish a scientifically grounded analytical framework for strategic urban development planning in the context of Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery and the transformation of the urban environment. The purpose of the article is to develop an improved methodological approach to forecasting the development of the rental real estate market of Kyiv with a quantitative assessment of volatility and risk levels across individual market segments. Methods. The study employs a combination of methods that ensure the formation of a realistic forecasting corridor and enable a transition from deterministic to stochastic market forecasting. In particular, the applied methods include bounded linear trend extrapolation with statistically justified limits of permissible changes in rental market indicators; logarithmic exponential smoothing; and the calculation of a normalized annual growth coefficient based on the maximum allowable percentage change derived from statistical analysis of the distribution of observations. Results. The key result of the study is the construction of risk corridors for individual segments of the rental real estate market, reflecting alternative development scenarios. These risk corridors are developed based on estimates of average volatility and standard deviation, enabling a shift from deterministic forecasts to a stochastic interpretation of market dynamics. Market indicators are grouped according to their levels of instability and risk using an author-developed scale of volatility, standard deviation, and variance. The main factors influencing volatility and risk in the rental real estate market are identified. An algorithm for monitoring the risk corridor is proposed, based on the principles of economic diagnostics, risk-oriented analysis, and the scenario approach. Conclusions. The study establishes an analytical foundation for substantiating strategic and investment decisions and for improving regulatory mechanisms of the rental real estate market at the city level. The identified asymmetry of risks among market segments creates economic prerequisites for applying portfolio and diversification approaches to the development of Kyiv’s rental real estate market.