Predictive HR Analytics in the System of Proactive Personnel Policy

Abstract

The relevance of the study is determined by the growing uncertainty of the business environment and critical talent shortages that require a transition from reactive to proactive personnel management. According to the World Economic Forum, by 2030, 39% of core employee skills will undergo significant changes, while McKinsey Global Institute estimates the automation potential at up to 30% of working hours. At the same time, only 8% of organizations integrate external macroeconomic and geopolitical forecasts into their workforce planning systems, which limits the ability to respond to changes in advance. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the theoretical and methodological foundations for integrating predictive HR analytics with macroeconomic and geopolitical forecasting systems to form a proactive personnel policy of organizations under conditions of uncertainty. The methodological basis of the study comprises general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, systematization and generalization, modeling and forecasting. A systems approach was applied to form the conceptual model, a classification method to systematize impact factors, and a scenario approach to account for external environment uncertainty. The information base of the study includes scientific publications from Scopus and Web of Science databases, reports of international organizations (WEF, McKinsey, Deloitte, UNHCR), and data from the National Bank of Ukraine.Results. The evolution of HR analytics has been systematized and four levels of HR function analytical maturity have been identified: descriptive, diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive. A classification of external factors influencing personnel policy (macroeconomic, geopolitical, demographic, technological) has been developed with the identification of monitoring indicators and data sources. A five-stage mechanism for translating macro-forecasts into workforce decisions has been substantiated. A conceptual model of proactive personnel policy has been formed, covering four structural levels and ensuring the integration of internal HR data with external forecasts. A methodology for building workforce scenarios has been developed and an algorithm for making proactive personnel decisions has been formalized. Organizational and managerial prerequisites for implementing the model have been determined and directions for its adaptation to the conditions of the Ukrainian economy have been outlined. The scientific novelty lies in substantiating a conceptual model of proactive personnel policy that integrates intra-organizational HR analytics with external macroeconomic, geopolitical, and demographic forecasts based on a scenario approach. The practical significance of the results lies in the direct applicability of the proposed model and tools to strategic HR management practice: the developed algorithm enables the integration of workforce planning into overall business planning cycles, while the scenario approach ensures evidence-based personnel decisions under conditions of uncertainty.