Mechanism of commercial risk management for agribusiness enterprises under martial law and post-war recovery

Abstract

Purpose. The primary objective of the article is to provide a theoretical substantiation and develop the applied foundations of the commercial risk management mechanism for agribusiness enterprises amidst the turbulence caused by martial law. Furthermore, the study aims to define strategic adaptation vectors for this mechanism during the period of post-war recovery of the Ukrainian economy. The research focuses on identifying specific threats affecting the commercial operations of the agricultural sector and formulating an adaptive management model capable of minimizing losses and ensuring long-term competitiveness.

Methods. The methodological framework of the study comprises general scientific and specialized methods of economic process cognition. The systematic analysis method was employed to examine the structure of commercial risks as a complex system. The logical generalization method was applied to formulate definitions and theoretical propositions regarding risk management. Statistical and economic analysis served as the basis for assessing the current state of the agricultural market and identifying the dynamics of logistics costs. The graphical method was used to visualize the architecture of the management mechanism, while the abstract-logical method facilitated the formulation of theoretical conclusions and recommendations for enhancing the commercial security systems of enterprises.

Results. The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the transformation of commercial risks under martial law. It is demonstrated that traditional risk management methods require significant correlation due to the blockade of traditional export routes, destruction of production infrastructure, and the instability of the financial system. The author identifies key risk categories: critical-infrastructure, logistical-distribution, and financial-credit risks. It is substantiated that an effective management mechanism must be based on the principles of resilience (flexibility and recovery capacity). The study proves that for agribusiness enterprises (particularly in the Western region of Ukraine), transitioning to digital market monitoring technologies and implementing innovative risk-hedging tools is critically important. A conceptual model of an adaptive management mechanism has been developed, incorporating modules for preventive response, operational threat mitigation, and strategic recovery. Special emphasis is placed on the role of export corridors and the diversification of commodity flows toward EU markets as tools for stabilizing commercial outcomes. It is determined that post-war recovery will necessitate the integration of state war-risk insurance mechanisms and the active attraction of investment into the processing segment of the agro-industrial complex.

Conclusions. The research results confirm that under wartime conditions, commercial risk management evolves from a supporting function into a strategic priority for business survival. The proposed adaptive mechanism enables agricultural enterprises not only to minimize current losses from logistical disruptions but also to establish an institutional environment for rapid post-war recovery. The practical implementation of the developed recommendations will enhance national food security and strengthen the position of Ukrainian farmers in the international arena. Future scientific inquiries in this field should focus on developing mathematical models for predicting military and political risks within the context of European integration processes.