Economic modelling of how anchor businesses affect rural tourism's financial efficiency in an informal economy market

Abstract

The article examines the mechanisms for capitalising on the recreational resources of territorial communities (TCs) amidst the contemporary challenges of decentralisation. The primary purpose of this study is to theoretically substantiate and econometrically model the impact of "anchor" destination sites on the fiscal efficiency of rural tourism, particularly under conditions of high market latency. To achieve this, the research utilises a comprehensive methodology, combining structural-logical modelling with an empirical analysis of statistical data from 2020–2024, employing museum attendance as a proxy for the shadow economy.

Our central argument is that, in an era of uncertainty, a regional sustainable development strategy should prioritise enhancing the local fiscal footprint over merely increasing visitor numbers. The study focuses on transforming an "anchor" site (using the Kamianets-Podilskyi State Historical Museum-Reserve as a case study) from a passive cultural asset into a dynamic growth engine capable of triggering a consumption multiplier within the agritourism sector. The developed econometric model illustrates the non-linear conversion of day-trip excursion traffic into actual household income, accounting for the interplay between the guest retention coefficient (L) and disruptive market latency.

An analysis of the "anomalous" 2022 data confirms our hypothesis: even with a two-fold decrease in visitor volume, a TC can increase its revenue by expanding service consumption within agritourism farmsteads. The study reveals that a significant shadow economy in the private sector—reaching 80–90%—leads to information asymmetry, undermining strategic planning. Consequently, a "Single Ticket" system is proposed as an institutional tool to curb shadow activities. We contend that achieving the projected fiscal growth for 2026 (1.72 million UAH) depends on this digital tool’s capacity to minimise capital flight. The article concludes by outlining prospects for the digital modelling of integrated routes, specifically "Camino Podolico", as a foundation for a resilient financial ecosystem.