Modeling the investment attractiveness of ecosystem business models in the context of a platform economy

Abstract

The rapid development of ecosystem business models in the platform economy attracts the attention of many investors. At the same time, traditional approaches to assessing the investment attractiveness of such models do not fully account for their multivariate nature, scalability, and network effects.

The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology for modeling the investment attractiveness of ecosystem business models in the context of digital platform operations.

The study uses multivariate log-linear regression to develop an econometric model of the investment attractiveness of ecosystem business models in the platform economy. Using the least squares method, based on panel data from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet for 2021–2025, the model coefficients were determined, allowing the impact of operational scaling and asset monetization parameters on the level of the company’s market capitalization to be predicted.

The high accuracy of the developed model was established, with a coefficient of determination of which is 94.18%. The operational scale coefficient of the model was calculated, its statistical significance was confirmed, and it was shown that a 1% increase in ecosystem income increases the platform's total market value by 0.88% due to network effects. It was demonstrated that an increase in the monetization coefficient by 1 point leads to an increase in the platform’s actual value by 14.13%. It is substantiated that, in the absence of effective mechanisms for scaling and retaining customers, digital platforms do not offer a basic level of investment attractiveness.

The results obtained deepen understanding of the nature of platform capitalization through the formation of internal cross-subsidization flows, digital asset synergies, and the high cost of switching customers to another platform. The practical value of the study lies in the creation of a reliable diagnostic tool for venture and institutional investors, which enables objective assessment of the sustainability of ecosystem business models under macroeconomic instability.