Adaptive planning of industrial production In a climate of market uncertainty

Abstract

This article examines adaptive planning in industrial production within the context of market uncertainty, which has evolved from a temporary phenomenon into a permanent feature of the business environment for domestic enterprises. Traditional planning, based on fixed time horizons and deterministic forecasts, loses its effectiveness under such conditions – particularly during a state of emergency, when destabilisation simultaneously affects demand, resources, the regulatory environment and operational activities.

The essence of adaptive planning is revealed as a dynamic hypothesis subject to regular review, and its key principles are identified: flexibility, cyclicality, feedback, proactivity and multi-variability. The four main dimensions of uncertainty for industrial enterprises – demand, resource, regulatory and operational – are systematised, and their critical nature under martial law is substantiated.

A matrix has been proposed to map planning tools against four levels of market uncertainty: ranging from rolling horizon planning in conditions of relative predictability to flexible plans with adaptive triggers in force majeure situations. A seven-step algorithm for constructing an adaptive production plan has been developed – from diagnosing the environment and selecting the planning horizon to setting review triggers, monitoring deviations and evaluating the effectiveness of the planning cycle. The main barriers to the implementation of adaptive planning at domestic industrial enterprises have been identified – information and analytical, competence-related, motivational and resource-related – and a three-phase model for a phased transition to adaptive approaches has been proposed, comprising preparatory, pilot and large-scale phases.

The proposed toolkit lowers the entry threshold for enterprises that previously avoided adaptive planning due to its perceived complexity, and provides a clear methodological framework for making planning decisions under conditions of uncertainty at any level. The key conclusion is that uncertainty does not eliminate the need for planning, but merely changes its form – from a rigid, deterministic plan to a flexible, adaptive system.