Integrated assessment of investment instruments in the agri-food sector taking into account risk resilience and ESG factors

Abstract

The article develops an integrated approach to assessing the effectiveness of investment instruments in the agri-food sector under conditions of systemic uncertainty shaped by military risks, macroeconomic instability, climate change, logistical constraints, and increasing global volatility of agricultural markets. The study substantiates the necessity of transforming traditional financial approaches to investment efficiency assessment toward a multicriteria adaptive model that considers not only economic performance, but also risk resilience, ESG factors, institutional support, and the ability of investment mechanisms to operate under crisis conditions. It is demonstrated that the contemporary development environment of the agri-food sector requires a transition from static investment evaluation models to dynamic systems capable of accounting for multilevel uncertainty and instability of the external environment.

The study proposes an original integrated model for evaluating the effectiveness of investment instruments, combining financial-economic, risk-oriented, ESG-oriented, and adaptive approaches. The structure of the model includes economic efficiency, risk resilience, socio-environmental performance, institutional effectiveness, and adaptability to uncertainty. Particular attention is devoted to the formation of an adaptive mechanism for ranking investment instruments depending on the level of systemic instability and the ability to ensure continuity of investment processes in the agri-food sector. Within the framework of the study, a system of weighting coefficients was developed, enabling consideration of the influence of individual components on the integrated level of investment mechanism effectiveness.

The approbation of the model was conducted using the examples of international grant programs, agricultural bank lending mechanisms, and direct investments of international financial institutions in Ukraine’s agri-food sector. The research results confirmed that under conditions of high systemic uncertainty, the most effective instruments are those characterized by a high level of institutional support, adaptability, and risk resilience. It was established that grant-based and state-supported financing mechanisms demonstrate a higher level of adaptability to crisis transformations compared to classical market-based investment instruments.

The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of an integrated adaptive model for assessing the effectiveness of investment instruments, which for the first time synthesizes financial, risk, ESG, institutional, and adaptive components within a unified evaluation system for the agri-food sector. The practical significance of the obtained results is determined by the possibility of applying the proposed model to the formation of adaptive investment policy, ranking of investment alternatives, optimization of investment portfolios, and ensuring sustainable development of Ukraine’s agri-food sector under conditions of wartime economy, crisis transformations, and global economic instability.