The influence of tax audit and control work on tax debt dynamics in Ukraine: current trends and effectiveness issue

Abstract

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to examine the influence of tax audit and control work carried out by the Ukrainian tax authorities on tax debt dynamics and the risks of its formation in 2020-2025. The relevance of the study is determined by the fact that, under martial law, the state requires stable budget revenues, while a significant part of taxpayers faces reduced liquidity and increased economic uncertainty. In such circumstances, the traditional assessment of tax control through the number of audits and the amount of additional tax assessments is insufficient. Methods. The research is based on systemic, comparative, structural and dynamic, statistical and logical generalization methods. The empirical basis consists of official data of the State Tax Service of Ukraine on audit and control activities and the dynamics of tax debt, as well as provisions of the Tax Code of Ukraine and legislative changes concerning the restoration of tax audits during martial law. Results. The analysis shows that in 2020-2025 audit and control work developed unevenly. After restrictions caused by quarantine measures and the full-scale war, planned audits gradually resumed, while the amount of additional assessments increased sharply in 2024-2025. At the same time, the growth of additional assessments cannot automatically be interpreted as evidence of higher tax control efficiency. A real fiscal effect occurs only when assessed liabilities are legally agreed, actually paid and do not turn into tax debt. Conclusions.

The article argues for distinguishing between fiscal, payment, legal, debt-related and preventive effectiveness of audit and control work. An author’s approach to assessing debt-related effectiveness is proposed. It involves analyzing not only additional assessments, but also agreed, actually paid and unpaid amounts. This approach makes it possible to consider tax control not as an end in itself, but as an instrument for managing tax risks, strengthening voluntary compliance and improving the sustainability of public finance.