Scenario forecasting of the development of the innovative potential of dairy processing enterprises under external pressure

Abstract

Aim. The article considers the tools of scenario modeling and trend forecasting of the development of the innovative potential of dairy industry enterprises under external pressure. Methods. A multiplicative model of the enterprise's real (adjusted) innovative potential is substantiated, taking into account the “squeeze effect” of internal innovative capabilities under the influence of exogenous factors. The model is built on the interaction between two components: internal innovative potential (Ikp) and external pressure coefficient (Kex), whose interpretation is carried out according to the Harrington desirability scale. The multiplicative structure of the model reflects a fundamentally important property: under conditions of critical external pressure, the real innovative potential approaches zero regardless of the level of the internal innovative capacity of the enterprise. The model was tested on the example of PrJSC "Danone Kremez" for 2012–2024. Using the Solver add-in in MS Excel, scenario modeling of three alternative states of the external environment was carried out: pessimistic ("escalation of systemic external pressure"), adaptive ("adaptive equilibrium") and optimistic ("controlled innovative recovery"). Results. A critical dependence of the level of real innovative potential on external operating conditions was established: the gap between the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios is 20 times. Forecast trajectories for 2025–2030 were constructed using the linear extrapolation method based on the FORECAST.LINEAR function. The "hysteresis" effect was revealed: a sharp deterioration in the level of innovative potential under the influence of external pressure and a tendency to slow recovery even under favorable external conditions, caused by irreversible losses of human and organisational capital during the crisis period. Conclusions. Comparison of forecast trajectories with defined scenarios established the company's approach to a pessimistic development model, which necessitates targeted state regulation and industry support as key conditions for the innovative recovery of enterprises in the dairy processing industry of Ukraine.