Institutional and macroeconomic determinants of economic security of Ukraine in the conditions of post-war reconstruction: the role of veteran entrepreneurship

Abstract

The article investigates the conceptual, institutional, and macroeconomic paradigms of ensuring Ukraine’s economic security during the post-war recovery phase, placing a strategic emphasis on the transformative role of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), with a specific focus on veteran entrepreneurship. By addressing the transition from a crisis-management model to sustainable structural development, the research analyzes key macroeconomic indicators for 2025–2026. This assessment utilizes baseline and stress-tested forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the National Bank of Ukraine, evaluating GDP growth trajectories, inflation dynamics, and fiscal deficit constraints under conditions of persistent geopolitical volatility.

Furthermore, the study systematizes the regulatory framework governing veteran entrepreneurship, evaluating the institutional impact and implementation mechanisms of the Law of Ukraine “On Veteran Entrepreneurship” No. 4563-IX as a critical tool for socio-economic reintegration and alignment with European normative standards. The research empirically maps the industry specialization and spatial-geographical distribution of veteran-owned businesses, assessing the correlation between regional security risks and operational resilience. An in-depth evaluation of psychological and operational stress factors is conducted, alongside a critical analysis of adaptive marketing strategies and supply chain risk mitigation frameworks employed by these enterprises.

The architecture of financial support is systematically reviewed through the prism of capital allocation efficiency. This includes an examination of state-backed grant programs (Ukrainian Veterans Fund, Ministry of Economy) and targeted commercial bank lending initiatives (“Oschadbank”, “UKRSIBBANK”), highlighting the necessity of blended finance instruments. Ultimately, the study substantiates the scientific novelty of the “hero policy” paradigm. It proves that integrating veterans into the economic fabric via social entrepreneurship mechanisms rehabilitates human capital and acts as a fundamental driver for strengthening national economic sustainability, institutional trust, and structural resilience.