Methodological principles for the formation of a nationwide risk management system for foreign economic activity in Ukraine

Abstract

Objective. The primary objective of this article is to substantiate the theoretical and practical foundations for building a new, more effective risk management system for foreign economic activity (FEA) in Ukraine. Special attention is paid to regional specifics. The task is to identify mechanisms that will not only reduce current losses from economic instability but also optimize the operation of the Odesa port cluster, as it remains the main export window of our state.

Methods. In the process of writing the paper, system-structural analysis was used to assess the state of the institutional environment. Additionally, economic-statistical modeling methods were involved to calculate the real financial losses of enterprises due to downtime and demurrage. Comparative analysis was applied to evaluate the logistics routes of Greater Odesa.

Results. The analysis showed that under conditions of prolonged turbulence, old methods of customs and logistics control have completely exhausted themselves. It has been established that today the risk of large-scale logistics disruptions reaches 85%. Due to this, Ukrainian exporters lose more than 5 billion UAH of working capital every month. Based on the actual situation in the ports of Odesa, we propose our own FEA management model. This model operates proactively and includes three basic elements: maximum digitalization of customs procedures, the use of predictive analytics tools to calculate threats, and a fair distribution of losses from force majeure between the state and entrepreneurs. It is concluded that holding onto old regulatory norms in the current realities is simply impractical.

Conclusions. It is proven that Ukraine vitally needs to create a so-called "National FEA Risk Hub". This should be a single integrated platform where customs, the border guard service, and the port administration will work together. In practice, such a step will finally allow for the full implementation of European NCTS regulations. Moreover, the time required to complete customs formalities will be reduced by approximately 30–50%, which will undoubtedly provide a positive impetus for related sectors of our economy.