Managing Financial Security of Business Entities in Ukraine's War Economy: Threat Diagnostics and Adaptive System Architecture

Abstract

Purpose. To substantiate an adaptive system architecture for financial security management of business entities under the conditions of Ukraine's war economy, based on a typology of cascading threats and the conceptualisation of digitalisation as a driver of adaptive capacity. Methods. Systematisation and comparative analysis of theoretical approaches to financial security management; a matrix method for constructing a four-layer architecture; empirical analysis of cascading effects based on data from Kyiv School of Economics, the National Bank of Ukraine, Opendatabot, and Razumkov Centre for 2022–2024. The methodological foundation integrates neo-institutional economic theory, the COSO ERM 2017 corporate risk management framework, and resilience economics concepts (absorptive, adaptive, transformative resilience). Results. Five principles of adaptive management were formulated — cascading, multidimensionality, digital intensity, institutional embeddedness, and size differentiation; a typology of five threat types (physical-operational, macrofinancial, regulatory, cyber-financial, human-reputational) was developed with identification of indicators, time horizons, and mechanisms of cascading mutual reinforcement; a four-layer architecture (absorptive resilience, monitoring, adaptation, transformation) was built with 16 key instruments and KPIs; an implementation roadmap for 2025–2030 was developed with differentiation across four business sizes (micro, small, medium, and large enterprises). Conclusions. The scientific novelty lies in conceptualising the cascading mechanism of mutual reinforcement of war-related threats and substantiating the digitalisation of the financial function as the core of adaptive capacity, without which other architectural layers lose the informational basis for timely decisions. The practical significance pertains to three addressees: business management (a self-diagnostic tool for readiness assessment and transformation planning); state regulators — the NBU, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economy (rationale for size-differentiated support policy); and international donors — Ukraine Facility, EBRD, IFC (a framework for coordinating financial assistance).