The Agricultural Sector of Ukraine as a Factor of Economic Growth and Resilience: A Quantitative Assessment Based on Value Added Indicators

Abstract

The study provides a quantitative assessment of the role of Ukraine’s agricultural sector in ensuring economic growth and macroeconomic resilience during 2014–2023. The research focuses on measuring the sector’s contribution to the creation of gross value added (GVA) and its structural impact on the formation of gross domestic product (GDP) in both the pre‑war and wartime periods, thus clarifying its systemic importance for national economic stability.

The methodological framework combines systemic, structural‑functional and comparative‑dynamic approaches. Index and structural‑analytical methods were used to analyze changes in the share of agriculture in GVA and GDP, while the method of economic generalization was applied to interpret the results. The empirical base consists of official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for 2014–2023, analytical materials of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, and international reports by the World Bank, FAO, OECD, and UNDP. Statistical processing employed trend analysis, comparison of absolute and relative indicators, and construction of structural correlations between key macroeconomic variables.

It was found that the agricultural sector remains one of the central components of the Ukrainian economy, generating on average 8.3-12.5 % of GDP and 9-11 % of GVA. In 2014–2021 the sector outpaced the overall economy, acting as a driver of growth, whereas in 2022–2023 it shifted to a stabilizing role amid wartime disruptions. The share of agriculture in GDP rose to 11.43 % in 2022, confirming its capacity to sustain macroeconomic equilibrium under crisis conditions. The resilience of the sector is mainly supported by export diversification, flexible logistics, adaptation to internal demand, and international assistance programs. These factors maintained the generation of value added even under loss of production capacity and trade constraints.

The study confirms that agriculture in Ukraine simultaneously performs two complementary functions: it serves as a source of economic growth in stable periods and as a foundation of macroeconomic resilience during crises. The obtained results broaden the empirical understanding of the relationship between sectoral performance and national stability. Practical implications include the use of quantitative findings for developing reconstruction strategies aimed at strengthening the productive and structural potential of the agri‑industrial complex as a leading contributor to national value added and GDP. Future research should examine regional differences, the effectiveness of policy support mechanisms, and long‑term structural transformations of the agricultural economy.