Geopolitical Instability and Sanctions Policy as Determinants of the Transformation of Global Value Chains

Abstract

The relevance of the study is determined by the increasing influence of geopolitical instability and sanctions policy on the functioning of Global Value Chains (GVCs), accompanied by the transformation of international production networks, changes in logistics routes, and growing economic uncertainty. Modern GVCs are becoming increasingly dependent on political factors, trade restrictions, and geo-economic conflicts, which necessitates a reconsideration of approaches to ensuring their resilience and adaptability.

The purpose of the article is to investigate the impact of geopolitical instability and sanctions policy on the transformation of global value chains. The study applies methods of scientific literature analysis and synthesis, systems approach, comparative analysis, and logical generalization in order to identify the key mechanisms through which geopolitical factors affect GVCs.

It has been established that modern GVCs operate under conditions of increasing political turbulence manifested through military conflicts, sanctions restrictions, trade wars, infrastructure disruptions, and crisis phenomena in the global economy. The mechanisms of the influence of sanctions policy on international trade, financial flows, technological exchange, and logistics systems are analyzed. It is proved that sanctions act not only as an instrument for restricting economic interaction but also as a factor of structural transformation of GVCs, causing the redistribution of production capacities, diversification of supply sources, and regionalization of production.

It is substantiated that under conditions of geopolitical instability there is a shift in priorities from the model of global efficiency to the model of resilience focused on ensuring the continuity of production networks and reducing dependence on individual suppliers. It is determined that the key adaptation mechanisms include supply diversification, friend-shoring, nearshoring, and the development of alternative logistics routes.

The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the obtained results to assess the impact of geopolitical factors on GVCs and to develop strategies for their adaptation under conditions of global instability.