Customs-Tariff Regulation of Ukraine’s Foreign Trade under European Integration: Structural-Dynamic Analysis and Strategic Orientations

Abstract

The article conducts a comprehensive retrospective study of the institutional development and structural-functional transformation of Ukraine's customs-tariff regulation system. The research is carried out in the context of intensifying European integration processes, digital modernization of public administration, and adaptation of the national economy to global geopolitical shocks and martial law challenges. Based on a systemic analysis of empirical and statistical data from the State Customs Service of Ukraine and the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, the study evaluates the fiscal efficiency of the customs system, the dynamics of customs revenue, the value volumes of taxed imports, and the integral level of the conditional tax load. The authors propose an original periodization of the country’s customs perimeter evolution, distinguishing four key macroeconomic stages.

Special attention is paid to assessing the institutional efficiency of the State Customs Service, in particular, the dynamics of indicators for the digitalization of procedures (electronic declaration, reduction of cargo clearance time to 1.5 hours, automation of control) and the performance of the Customs Risk Management System. A profound structural analysis of foreign trade according to aggregated codes of the UKT ZED (Combined Nomenclature) was carried out, which allowed revealing the architecture of chronic problems in the customs sphere. Among these, fiscal-structural disproportions (the budget's dependence on imports of three commodity macro-groups), infrastructural limitations of checkpoints on the land perimeter of the western border, and mirror customs data asymmetry with EU countries were determined.

The scientific novelty of the study lies in the substantiation of the "fiscal-regulatory compromise" concept, which proves that under forced liberalization and the loss of classic tariff levers, the stability and adaptability of the customs regime are ensured through deep digital synchronization, deployment of the NCTS Phase 5 common transit IT infrastructure, and enhancement of risk-oriented control. Long-term strategic orientations for the modernization of Ukraine's customs authorities have been formulated. These are based on the implementation of AI-models (AI-Customs) for automatic verification of customs value, scaling up the practice of Joint Customs Control on a "one-stop" basis, and transforming customs instruments (specifically, AEO status) into effective drivers for the development of domestic non-primary exports with a high share of added value.