Ukraine in Global Food Security: Emerging Challenges and Threats

Abstract

The aim of this article is to conduct a comprehensive study of the transformations within Ukraine’s agricultural sector under the conditions of full-scale war and to determine the consequences of these changes for the national economy, the global food market, and international food security. The article analyzes the dynamics of agricultural production and exports, identifies trends in the structure of agrarian exports, assesses the losses and emerging challenges, and emphasizes Ukraine’s role as a key player in the international agri-food system.

The study employs methods of economic and statistical analysis, comparative analysis of production and export trends, as well as techniques for generalization, systematization, and assessment of geopolitical impacts on the functioning of Ukraine’s agricultural sector. Official statistical data from national and international organizations, including FAO, NASA, the National Institute for Strategic Studies (NISS), and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, were used.

It has been established that Ukraine’s agricultural sector has suffered a significant blow due to military actions, as evidenced by a decline in its share of gross value added, a reduction in grain crop production, loss of arable land, port blockades, decreased export capacity, and a shift by farms toward less input-intensive crops (such as sunflower and rapeseed). Analysis of the export structure reveals a predominant focus on raw materials—grain and leguminous crops account for over 99% of total exports—limiting added value and global competitiveness. The war has had adverse effects not only on Ukraine but also on food stability in African and Asian regions that depend on Ukrainian exports.

Despite military threats, Ukraine’s agricultural sector demonstrates remarkable resilience and strategic importance. Successful adaptation of logistics chains, resource mobilization, and international support have enabled the sector to maintain a presence on global markets. However, future development requires a shift toward higher value-added production, expansion of domestic processing capacities, improved agricultural efficiency, and enhanced food security in light of emerging challenges. Given the strategic significance of Ukraine’s agricultural output for the global market, stabilizing the security situation is critically important for both the national economy and the international food system.