Concept and models of development of the socio-economic system of post-war development in Ukraine

Abstract

Introduction. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has triggered a deep socio-economic crisis. Massive destruction, human losses, forced migration, and economic decline have made it imperative to rethink traditional development models. In this context, a new post-war development paradigm based on resilience, inclusiveness, innovation, and effective governance has become essential. The article explores theoretical foundations, strategic forecasting tools, and practical mechanisms for rebuilding Ukraine’s socio-economic system in a post-conflict environment.

Purpose. The purpose of this study is to justify strategic approaches to Ukraine's post-war development and to propose a conceptual basis for transforming the socio-economic system by considering national specifics, global challenges, and international best practices.

Results. The article presents three major approaches to modeling socio-economic systems: institutional, evolutionary, and systems-based. It analyzes the consequences of war for the economy, infrastructure, and society. Forecasting methods such as econometric modeling, expert analysis, and system dynamics are applied to assess possible development scenarios. The potential of renewable energy, digitalization, social programs, and the roles of key actors (government, business, civil society, international partners) are highlighted. The author identifies four post-war development models for Ukraine: innovation-industrial, regional, socially-oriented, and open economy. Each model is seen as complementary to the others. Particular emphasis is placed on current challenges, including political instability, security threats, institutional weaknesses, and global economic turbulence.

Conclusion. Ukraine’s recovery requires profound institutional reforms, international cooperation, strong local governance, and the integration of green and digital technologies. The most effective strategy includes developing human capital, reducing social inequality, supporting small and medium enterprises, and advancing digital transformation. A national development model should be adopted to ensure long-term growth in an uncertain global environment. Further research should focus on regional development strategies, risk management, and the adaptation of international experience to Ukraine’s needs.