Assessment of monetary policy risks in conditions of macroeconomic turbulence

Abstract

In the current environment of global turbulence and domestic economic instability, Ukraine's monetary policy is a crucial instrument for maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability. Its effectiveness depends not only on the accuracy of monetary decisions, but also on the ability to adapt to dynamic challenges arising from external shocks, geopolitical tensions and structural transformations in the financial sector. The purpose of this study is to identify and evaluate systemic risks affecting the implementation of monetary policy in Ukraine under conditions of macroeconomic instability and external shocks. The research aims to develop analytical frameworks for assessing the resilience of monetary instruments in response to inflationary pressure, fiscal imbalances, and geopolitical disruptions. The methodological approach integrates logistic regression, nonlinear STR modeling, and scenario-based stress testing. Empirical data from the National Bank of Ukraine and international financial institutions were used to construct comparative models of risk exposure. The study also applies general scientific methods of synthesis, abstraction, and empirical generalization to interpret the dynamics of monetary transmission mechanisms. The results demonstrate that interest rate volatility, credit risk asymmetry, and liquidity constraints are the primary factors undermining the effectiveness of monetary policy. The findings reveal that digitalization of banking operations enhances risk monitoring capabilities but introduces new vulnerabilities related to cybersecurity and data asymmetry. Coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities is crucial for maintaining financial stability, particularly during post-crisis recovery phases. The conclusions emphasize the need for adaptive monetary strategies based on data-driven decision-making, flexible regulatory instruments, and institutional cooperation. Recommendations include integrating digital platforms for performance tracking, refining STR-based forecasting models, and expanding macroprudential oversight to mitigate systemic risks.