An integrated mechanism for assessing the effectiveness of investment decisions in the development of the agri-food sector in conditions of systemic uncertainty

Abstract

The article examines modern methodological approaches to the selection and evaluation of investment instruments for the strategic development of the agri-food sector under conditions of systemic uncertainty. The relevance of the study is determined by the growing influence of geopolitical instability, military threats, climate change, logistical disruptions, inflationary processes, market volatility, and institutional transformations on investment activity in the agricultural economy. The agri-food sector is considered one of the key drivers of economic growth, food security, export potential, and socio-economic stability of Ukraine.

The study systematizes and critically analyzes classical financial-economic, risk-oriented, integral, multicriteria, ESG-oriented, adaptive-scenario, and innovation-technological approaches to investment decision-making. It is established that traditional investment evaluation methods based on discounted financial indicators (NPV, IRR, PI, DPP) are insufficient under conditions of high uncertainty, as they do not fully account for external shocks, environmental risks, and strategic sustainability factors.

The article identifies the main levels and sources of uncertainty affecting the investment development of the agri-food sector, including macroeconomic, sectoral, institutional, entrepreneurial, climatic, and exogenous shock-related factors. A formalized model of integrated investment uncertainty is proposed, reflecting the interaction of different levels of risk and instability.

Special attention is paid to the necessity of integrating ESG principles, adaptive management mechanisms, scenario modeling, and multicriteria assessment tools into the investment evaluation system. The authors substantiate the expediency of forming a comprehensive adaptive model for evaluating investment efficiency that combines financial profitability, risk resilience, environmental sustainability, social effects, and institutional adaptability.

It is proved that the effectiveness of investment decisions in the agri-food sector should be interpreted not only through financial returns but also through the ability of investment instruments to adapt to crisis conditions, maintain long-term sustainability, and ensure strategic resilience under systemic uncertainty.