The Real Estate Market of Ukraine: Retrospective Analysis, Modeling, and Development Forecast

Abstract

This article addresses the urgent need to forecast housing price trends in Ukraine’s real estate market following the end of active military conflict. The authors conduct a comparative analysis of housing price dynamics in countries that have experienced armed conflicts similar to the war in Ukraine. The study is relevant due to its application of retrospective analysis and mathematical modeling to predict the future value of real estate. The research focuses specifically on the residential real estate market in Ukraine, particularly in Kyiv. The main goal is to develop a step-by-step approach to forecasting property values after the cessation of hostilities. The study employs general scientific methods of systems analysis to transform discrete data into a continuous format for large-scale data processing. The research includes a comparative analysis of real estate price trends in Georgia, Moldova, Serbia, Syria, and Ukraine during and after armed conflicts. The article models not only price changes but also market activity through 2030. A recovery rate coefficient of approximately 0.3 was calculated for the Ukrainian housing market, which corresponds to a moderate growth scenario. Under this scenario, full market recovery may occur within 4 to 6 years after the end of active conflict. To improve the accuracy of the forecast model, the authors recommend incorporating regional differences, comparisons between large cities and small towns, and factors such as energy efficiency, mortgage accessibility, and public trust in developers. These elements are essential for building a realistic post-war recovery scenario. Based on the retrospective analysis of other countries, the authors propose a structured methodology for forecasting property values in Ukraine. The findings suggest that full or partial recovery of the housing market may take 5 to 7 years after the end of active hostilities. In the case of Kyiv, pre-war market indicators could be restored within five years.